RÄVIR Forecasting · Forecast
Make uncertainty
useful.
Forecasts for sales, demand, inventory and capacity. We test what history can tell us about the next period and how much weight you should place on the answer.
Forecasting pilot
Start small.
Test the value.
The pilot establishes whether a better forecast is possible and useful. It informs the next decision; ongoing operation is scoped separately.
- Define the decisionOne product group or forecast unit, an agreed horizon and a specific planning need.
- Test on historical dataModels are evaluated on later periods they have not been trained on, using only information available at that time.
- Compare with a simple referenceFor example the previous period or the same season last year. Your current method is included if it can be reproduced.
- Deliver results and limitationsA forecast, forecast errors and description of uncertainty. We recommend use, further testing or keeping the simple approach.
An important distinction
Forecast ≠ Budget ≠ TargetA forecast describes an expected development under stated assumptions. A budget is a financial plan. A target describes what you want to achieve.
RÄVIR Labs · Forecast
Test the model on history.
Compare three simple models, switch between recipient and transport views, and see how a tonnage forecast becomes a capacity scenario.
The advanced model
must earn its place.
Evidence requires trust. Trust requires discipline.
A simple starting point
Start with the problem.
What do you want to understand, decide or make work better? A few lines are enough to start the conversation.